BNP Paribas Pushes Ahead: Rising US-EU M&A Presence & Infrastructure Drive

BNP Paribas is entering a critical phase in its competitive trajectory. The bank’s expansion in the U.S. and UK/Europe is being structured around deepening sector expertise, bringing in senior talent, and complementing weak spots exposed by HSBC’s pullback from U.S. M&A and ECM. Some hires are converting opportunity; others suggest depth is still being built.

Its Q3 2025 financials validate that CIB is not only leveraging organic growth but also benefiting from its asset management acquisitions, particularly AXA IM, which is already contributing to revenue synergies while dragging upon CET1 capital ratios [3],[1]. BNP’s CET1 at 12.5% is stable, but absorbing expected 35 bps capital impact from AXA IM acquisition requires maintaining strong profitability and risk discipline [3].

Despite strong performance in its global markets and securities services, BNP remains below global peers in advisory (M&A) volume and ranking. Being 29th globally in M&A shows both scope for upside and a structural challenge: deal volume is low in Europe compared to North America, and regulatory and market fragmentation still weigh [2].

Strategically, BNP is betting on three levers: (a) hiring senior bankers and sector specialists (e.g. in infrastructure, telecoms, business services) to win higher-margin advisory roles; (b) leveraging its DCM and bond underwriting strength as a foundation to compete; (c) using acquisitions (AXA IM) and stakes (Ageas) to build complementary non-banking finance capabilities.

Open questions include whether market conditions (interest rates, IPO recoveries, macro stability) will support expanded advisory activity in 2026, how regulatory capital pressures might constrain growth, and whether BNP can scale U.S. operations to create material revenue in a competitive and saturated landscape.