How NBFIs Will Capture Billions in CIB: AI, Regulation & Strategy to 2030

The BCG “Corporate & Investment Banking Report 2025: Positioning for Growth in Uncertain Times” details a structural inflection in global CIB markets, underpinned by the accelerating role of NBFIs, advances in AI, and geopolitical and regulatory fragmentation [1][6]. In 2024, traditional bank CIB revenues (excluding NBFIs) reached ~$827 billion, rising to $989 billion when NBFIs are included—suggesting NBFIs already account for ~15-16% of the current global CIB revenue pool and expect to rise to ~20-22% by 2030 [6][7].

One of the major drivers is the shift of trading activity and advisory/lending functions toward non-bank platforms, fintechs, asset managers, private credit funds, and boutique banks. Trading volumes handled by NBFIs are projected to reach ~30% by 2030 [1][6]. Additionally, boutique investment banks alone could secure 20% of investment banking fee pools, further amplifying competitive pressure on larger banks to modernize and differentiate [1][2].

AI is central to capturing and defending future value. BCG projects that AI investments could unlock 25-40% uplift in capacity among bankers, and 20-35% in operations. Leaders will embed AI across CIB operations, from trading to compliance, while laggards risk margin erosion and relevance loss [1][6]. RoTE, a critical metric of bank performance, is expected to diverge significantly — up to 8 percentage points between top and bottom quartiles by 2030 [1][7].

NBFIs face risks as their influence expands: regulatory regimes vary widely, disclosure gaps remain, and interconnectedness with banks is increasing. The IMF, in its Global Financial Stability Report, warns of risks in banking exposure to NBFIs such as private credit and hedge funds, potentially amplifying downturns [2][3]. These concerns are heightened as debt markets, liquidity transformation, and private markets grow in scale within the non-bank sector [3][1].

Strategically, incumbent banks need to rethink their future roadmap. Core businesses must be digitized; corporate banking must be rearchitected to withstand disintermediation; fee-based, scale advantaged, or infrastructure-oriented offerings may offer safer ground. Partnerships with fintechs, investment in AI, reshaping global footprints under regulatory stress, and building platform scale will likely differentiate winners from losers [1][7].

Open questions include: what regulatory adjustments will balance competition and systemic risk? Can banks deploy AI responsibly and competitively? Will NBFIs’ growth remain sustainable in down cycles? How will technology and capital infrastructure evolve in fragmented geopolitical systems?