JPMorgan Q4 2025: Slight IB Fee Growth, Stronger Markets Upside amid Rising Costs

The initial GurgaonFocus article suggested that JPMorgan expects “a slight increase in its fourth-quarter investment banking fees… in the low single-digit range,” painting a picture of modest growth against a backdrop of broader strength in its businesses. [Primary]

However, more recent and authoritative sources, including statements from Marianne Lake at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, clarify that JPMorgan does not expect substantial fee acceleration in investment banking — fee growth is projected at low single digits year over year for Q4 2025, while the markets/trading division is forecasted to deliver low-teens percentage growth, which reflects stronger momentum in market-making and trading activities rather than advisory or underwriting. [2][1]

On the cost front, JPMorgan foresees ~$105 billion in expenses in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations (~$101 billion). These expenses are driven by growth-related costs, inflation pressures, and strategic investments—particularly in AI, consumer banking, branch expansion, and elevated marketing or sales incentive spending. The market reacted sharply, with stock falling over 4% on the news, the worst drop in a single day since April. [2][3]

From a financial health perspective, the bank continues to demonstrate strong profitability: ROE has been around 16.4%, net margins remain robust, and debt levels (debt-to-equity ~1.4 previously reported) are manageable, given the scale and regulatory constraints. However, valuation multiples—P/E, P/S, P/B—are near multi-year highs. Analyst sentiment is generally positive: price targets cluster around $320-$330, which represents notable, but not explosive, upside from current share levels (~$300+). [4][5][2]

Strategic implications center around JPMorgan’s balancing act: elevating investment in technology and growth to maintain competitive edge, while keeping costs under control. The modest expected growth in investment banking fees suggests limited upside in advisory/underwriting, so success in trading and risk management will be more critical. Rising expenses mean that efficiency metrics and return on capital will be under extra scrutiny. Key open questions include the sustainability of trading revenues in volatile markets, ability to control credit costs (especially with rising charge-offs projected), and the impact of macroeconomic headwinds on deal-flow.