Mizuho Eyes ¥1 Trillion+ Profit with Surge in Japan-US Deals and M&A Push

Mizuho operates at a strategic inflection point. With the revival of Japan’s interest rate cycle, the end of prolonged deflation, and strong loan demand—particularly in the domestic market—the bank is benefiting from a cyclical tailwind that supports both net interest income and non-interest income via investment banking. [1][15] The FI’s 44 % YoY net profit surge for July-September 2025 and its ability to revise upward profit forecasts underscore strong execution. [15]

Internationally, Mizuho has deployed a more assertive M&A strategy. The $550 million acquisition of Greenhill in the U.S. bolstered its deal advisory strength and allowed access to deal-making talent; similarly, the Augusta & Co buy spotlights its growing advisory footprint in clean energy and sustainability in Europe. [16][17] Further, Mizuho’s Americas unit projects that 2025’s M&A momentum—driven by megadeals, PE exits, and CEO desire to future-proof—will extend into 2026. [1news15]

On capital policy and shareholder returns, Mizuho is becoming more generous. Its CET1 ratio stands at a solid 10.5 %, enabling it to allocate capital more freely. It has launched a ¥300 billion share buyback program and raised profit forecasts to ¥1.13 trillion for the year ending March 2026—new records. [15][0][7] At the same time, risks are non-trivial: trade tariffs and regulatory shifts (especially in the U.S.) may affect cross-border deals; FX volatility remains a concern; and domestic competition—especially in wealth manage­ment/digital platforms—is intensifying. [4][6][11]

Strategically, Mizuho must navigate two adjacent imperatives to maintain its momentum: first, strengthen its global investment banking credentials, especially in cross-border, tech, energy transition, and large cap sectors; second, improve competitiveness in wealth and asset management in Japan and Asia, given rising expectations and the strength of rivals. Its partnerships (e.g. Rakuten) and digital transformation efforts may be key levers. [6][10]

Open questions include how sustainable the elevated interest rate environment will be, how trade policy evolves (especially U.S./Japan tariffs), how regulatory regimes in the U.S. and abroad impact foreign M&A, and how Mizuho will balance risk (credit, FX, inflation) while pushing on growth frontiers.