Strong CIB Performance in 2024-25: How Banks Can Navigate Nonbanks, AI & Digital Assets

The McKinsey report “CIB in an era of volatility, AI, and nonbank challengers” (Dec. 11, 2025) outlines that while Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) has posted solid performance — revenues of US$3.0 trillion in 2024 with ~4.4 percent growth and ROE ~13.1 percent — the sector faces headwinds from three structural trends: macro/geopolitical volatility, the rise of attacker nonbanks, and rapid change at the digital frontier [1].

Nonbank challengers are proliferating. McKinsey identifies four types: independent investment banks (boutiques), nonbank market makers, private credit firms, and FX/payments specialists; BCG’s forecast suggests NBFIs will claim over 20 percent of CIB revenues and 30 percent of trading volumes by 2030 [1][2]. Private credit, in particular, has grown into a US$2 trillion global asset class managed by funds, with banks increasingly exposed through their lending or partnership exposure [1][3].

Technological disruption — especially via agentic AI — offers a transformative lever. McKinsey projects AI will allow process redesign across front-office, middle- and back-office functions (e.g. client coverage, credit, compliance) with substantial productivity gains if scaled well; digital assets like stablecoins and tokenization are also becoming material, with stablecoin transaction volumes exceeding US$27 trillion in 2024 [1].

To succeed under this convergence of disruption, McKinsey offers a four-part strategic agility playbook: respond to immediate uncertainty (geopolitical risk); build lean and scalable operational models; capture structural shifts (especially private capital and alternative financings); invest selectively in innovation (AI, transaction banking, digital assets) [1]. Banks executing this agenda could improve profitability by 20–30 percent compared to current baselines, possibly achieving ROEs structurally above 15 percent [1].

However, there are considerable risks and open questions. These include: regulatory responses to rising nonbank exposure, especially in private credit and NDFIs; talent & culture shifts required to implement AI at scale; valuation and liquidity risks in digital asset/tokenized instrument spaces; potential sectoral and regional divergence (e.g. constraints in China, EMEA vs Americas); and how macro volatility (inflation, trade disruptions, supply chain risks) may stress capital and reputational resilience [1][4][3].