National Security, Media Giants & Mining Megadeals: What’s Sparking Big M&A in 2025

In the current investment banking landscape, we observe a distinct shift toward deals embedded in national security, political oversight, and industry consolidation—especially in legacy sectors like mining and media.

First, JPMorgan’s commitment to invest over $10 billion of its capital in critical sectors marks a proactive move by banks to internalize national security and industrial policy. By hiring Todd Combs—renowned for his investment discipline at Berkshire Hathaway—JPM bank aims to blend financial returns with strategic sovereignty. Such initiatives suggest that banks are increasingly willing to use capital as a lever to safeguard supply chains and promote domestic tech and defense capacity. [1]

Second, Lazard’s CEO Peter Orszag highlights the rising importance of political capital and regulatory navigation. Multibillion-dollar deals are no longer won simply through financial structuring but through White House or Cabinet-level engagement—demonstrating how dealmaking has become deeply entwined with geopolitics. Bain & Orszag’s mobilization of Washington insiders, such as former Congressman Patrick McHenry, underscores the strategic embedding of political risk management in transaction advisory. [2]

Third, the media sector is under intense pressure. Paramount Skydance’s hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion for Warner Bros Discovery seeks to outbid Netflix not just in price but in scope, including linear networks. This signals both aggressive competition and concern about regulatory pushes that could fragment media empires. [3] Meanwhile, Netflix’s $83-billion offer is sizable but excludes cable networks—opening vulnerabilities to rival bids. The dual offers for WBD create tension for shareholders who must weigh regulatory certainty, deal speed, and value per share.

Fourth, the Teck-Anglo American merger ($53 billion) reflects how mining houses are consolidating to leverage synergies and scale in a sector that’s capital-intensive and exposed to both environmental regulation and supply chain pressure. With copper demand surging—driven by green energy infrastructure, AI, and electrification—proximity of assets (Chile in this case) plus shared operations present competitive advantage. However, operational risks (such as tailings disposal) and regulatory approvals remain key execution challenges. [4]

Strategic Implications:

• Investment banks able to respond with policy insight and regulatory foresight will hold competitive advantage, not just those strong in deal finance.
• Cross-sector experience—particularly in national security, industrial infrastructure, mining, media—adds value as strategic, geopolitical, and regulatory factors grow in importance.
• Risk management, especially environmental/social/governance (ESG) and community/regulatory opposition (e.g. tailings in mining, antitrust in media), will increasingly determine deal success.
• Sovereign wealth funds and state actors are major players now—not just as passive capital providers but as strategic partners and political influencers.

Open Questions:

• How will regulatory agencies globally respond to media mergers that include such mixed components (streaming, linear, international)?
• What guardrails ensure that “strategic investment” doesn’t become crony capitalism, especially with political appointees or insiders involved?
• Can banks balance risk-return in many of these national security-driven investments, which often require patience and carry nontraditional risks?
• How might supply chain or environmental shocks (e.g. tailings issues) affect valuation and integration in large mining consolidations?